INTERVIU Cristian Sima, WBS: "Vineri, banca ce a provocat eroarea va declara faliment. Wall-Street si pietele financiare din lume isi pierd din credibilitate"

Eroarea nu are nici o treaba cu brokerul ci pur si simplu a fost o combinatie de HFT (high frequency trading) si panica. Robotii pt HFT au urmat algoritmul exact cum au fost configurati. NYSE a avut 30 pana la 60 secunde intarziere pt tranzactii mari dar celelalte piete nu au respectat lucrul asta.
Fantezii ca banca nu stiu care e vinovata si va da faliment doar Dnu Sima le poate avea!!

Inca nici cei care reglementeaza piata bursiera in SUA nu au un raspuns cert la situatia mentionata privind scaderea brusca a pietei si o investigheaza.
Surprinzator insa, in Romania deja se stie cu precizie ce s-a intimplat si in plus chiar sunt date ca sigure actiuni de viitor (faliment banca).
Probabil daca americanii citesc acest articol, bursa americana va avea inco o scadere uluitoare vineri

domnule Sima , uneori ma faceti sa ma gindesc la o alta ghicitoare celebla cu publicitate in toate ziarele bune ...

Dupa criza precedenta si de cand tranzactionarea online a devenit ceva normal probabil ca in state majoritatea folosesc ordine tip "stop loss" si probabil uni le folosesc la pretul "market". Probabil ca altii au lasat ordine "buy" "open" pentru cand dow atinge 10000. Putem sa fim un pic paranoici si sa ne gandim ca un fon mare, dupa o scadere de 2-3% a observat ca nu prea mai sunt ordine de cumparare si a vandut puternic ca sa activeze stop lossurile in cascada si sa intre la 10000 dar nu cred ca e posibil pe lichiditatea din state. Cel putin graficul sugereaza ca a fost o tranzactionare automata, facuta de calculatoare si nu de oameni. Oricum si pe bloomberg e un articol care explica lucrurile cumva tot legat de tranzactionare online, cred ca stiu aia mai bine decat mine sau decat domnul Sima.

Poveste custuta cu ata alba pentru prosti!
Nimeni nu a dat astfel de ordin de vinzare. asta a fost bagat dupa ca sa acopere motivul... NYTrader are partial dreptate... a fost un outlier pe programe... pur si simplu a aparut un patern care a fsot interpretat de roboti si au dat automat multi sell order.. apoi a intervenit "mina misterioasa si salvatoare" in optiuni care a salvat piata.... acum totul este aranjat ca sa para ca totul a fost o greseala.. cind de fapt mutarea a fost una cit se poate de reala!!!!

Sunt un ageamiu in ale economiei, la economie am luat 2 la examen si profesoara mi-a dat 6 cu conditia sa nu ma mai vada niciodata. Sunt insa doctorand in retele de calculatoare.

In orice sistem complex prioectat de om se prevede eroarea. De aceea avem coduri de eroare in calculator, avem buton de reset - pentru a aduce sistemul intr-o stare cunoscuta, avem scuza cand calcam pe cineva pe picior. Singura transformare ireversibila pentru un om e moartea, in rest toate celelalte, cu vointa, sunt cel putin partial recuperabile.

Ceea ce s-a intamplat pe bursa, in ochii mei, nu este decat un protocol prost intre niste entitati (oameni si masini) care compun un sistem pe care nici nu il inteleg si care este mult mai rapid decat entitatile componente (bursa). Erorile de acest fel nu sunt reglementate, desi tehnica permite monitorizarea fiecarui pas si readucerea sistemului inapoi in starea anterioara erorii, pas cu pas.

Ce pot spune: ma bucur ca inginerii nu fac asa poduri, avioane sau rafinarii. Altfel am fi fost morti de multa vreme. Departe de a fi comunist, nu ma pot minuna fata de masinaria asta numita bursa. Oamenii cred ca o conduc cand de fapt ea ii conduce pe ei. Si ma bucur ca sunt asa ignorant in ale economiei.

O sa dea faliment Citi dupa ce o sa falimenteze in bloc Grecia, Spania si Portugalia.
Si poate nici atunci ..

Sima te-ai ambalat prea repede, nu o sa se intample nimic.

problema cu bursa este ca vinde blana ursului din padure... atunci cand faci tranzactii cu nimic te poti astepta la orice!
solutia este abandonarea sistemului financiar-bancar si inlocuirea lui cu un sistem bazat pe principiile de baza ale societatii umane.
este vorba de motivele care au dus la aparitia primelor comunitati umane in preistorie:
- cooperarea (la obtinerea de resurse);
- intrajutorare (prin impartirea resurselor intre membri comunitatii);
- protectie (a membrilor impotriva actiunilor agentilor exteriori comunitatii).

stiu ca unii vor zice ca nu se poate asa ceva in secolul xxi, dar va invit sa vizitati comunitatile numite kibbutz sau kvutza, care sunt comunitati bazate pe voluntariat si sunt infiintate din 1909 in israel!
acolo traiesc acum peste 100.000 de oameni, acestia muncesc si schimba produsul muncii lor in cadrul comunitatii FARA PROFIT!!!
desigur, acolo nu este nevoie de comercianti, brokeri, bancheri/camatari si alte asemenea meserii inutile in absenta banului, care, stim cu toti vorba veche romaneasca, este ochiul dracului.

...care devine constienta si preia controlul umanilor. Sounds familiar?

nu sunt expert in bursa...totusi parerea mea e ca speculantii nu s-au asteptat sa se ajunga asa repede la intelegere pentru ajutorarea Greciei, care a primit peste 100 de miliarde si au si votat planul in parlament. Eu cred ca cineva mare(banca sau client) s-a ars pariind impotriva Greciei. Probabil ca ieri cel care a pariat prost pana acum si-a scos banii inapoi printr-o inginerie smechera care o sa fie explicata in zilele urmatoare.

Am vazut in timpul crizei finaniare cum banci care au dus lumea pe marginea prapastiei au fost salvate cu 700 mld dolari. Credeti ca va da faliment o banca pentru o eroare umana de genul asta? Sa fim seriosi...

jeffers_mz


Registered: Mar 2010
Posts: 21


05-07-10 12:09 AM

No mistake.

At 1400 EST, I was watching the crowd in front of the Greek Parliament building, live, on an internet feed, as the result of a posting at a discussion forum I frequent. We were discussing the bottles being thrown, then the "bravery" of individual protestors who were entering the neutral zone and taunting police.

Greek gubmint had passed the austerity measures, but not by enough margin to preclude a second vote.

Police held a double, linear line across the front of Parliament, then along a detached salient across a major intersection at right angles to the line near the building on the police left flank. Crowd was mostly grouped in front of Parliament, with a smaller number facing the police line across the intersection. Police reserve was mounted on motorcycles, well down the block behind the salient across the intersection.

At or around 1415, two groups of protestors, center and left of their own lines advanced on the police and began beating them with sticks. Dow dropped from 10,600 to 10,500 at this time.

As one, the police abandoned their lines and swarmed towards the protestors, who outnumbered police at least 10 to 1, more like 100 to 1.

Protestors broke and ran, mostly across the street away from Parliament. There they stacked up against a wall protecting the sidewalk from a drop into a large plaza below. There was only one staircase from the sidewalk down to the plaza level. Had police continued the offensive at this point, it could well have been a bloodbath, for police. The crowd was cornered, with nowhere to run.

Wisely the police backed off to form a phalanx on their original side of the street. The webcam panned and zoomed to show other minor clashes between police and protestors, all "won" by police.

A few fires were started, minor vandalism, but largely the crowd dispersed.

It was at this point that the Dow crossed 10,500, and I believe stoploss orders and computer trading programs kicked in, driving the Dow below 9900 in about 7 minutes. I have four PC screens here, and two videos, so I had all this up at once, in realtime.

When the Dow passed below 10,000, I further believe that three things happened:

1. Programs to halt trading were discussed, perhaps in the early stages of execution.

2. Police clearly scattered the protestors, largely without major damage or injury.

3. As the Dow passed 10,000 on the way down, limit orders and differing computer programs kicked in for major buy orders.

As the riot was either over and "won", or at least the face to face confrontation was ...resolved...(for the moment), the auto-buys outweighed lingering sells, the Dow recovered to around 10,500, and backed and filled till close.

The downspike and recovery took no more than 15 minutes, 10,500 to 9900 and back to 10,500 again, all in perfect space-time co-incidence with the riot. This is supported by the graphs.

Now...

Asian markets are just opening. New Zealand is currently down 3.4% from 3.3% a few minutes ago. The Malaysian market is...apparantly closed, showing 0.00 on Yahoo, even though they were quoting and down .3% a few minutes ago.

The other Asian markets are either delayed (on my feed) or not open yet. Asia will do what it will do as this news disseminates, better yet, as more investors get a grip on what really happened. The "official" spin will not help the markets price this all in.

Asia's close will affect Europe's open. Events in greece will have a major effect, or not, positive or negative.

Europe's midday stats, plus Greek events, will affect the US open.

All three major markets will be under pressure to position for...whatever happens in Greece over the two day weekend, while the markets are closed.